The Social Gravity Model: A New Valuation Framework for the Attention Age

Dear {{First_Name|Friend}},

We've launched a Mavka Substack as the new home for our long-form articles. This newsletter isn't going anywhere — think of Substack as the deeper cut and the permanent archive, where essays on M&A, capital markets, specific sector research, and the shape of the next cycle will live side by side.

This week's piece is "The Social Gravity Model: A New Valuation Framework for the Attention Age."

It opens with a number that shouldn't make sense: SpaceX's confidential S-1, filed earlier this month, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation — with a $2T figure already circulating among prospective investors. On a real operating business doing ~$15–16B in revenue, that's a trailing multiple north of 100x. The instinct is to call it irrational. I don't think it is. I think it's the first clean signal that a new variable has entered the valuation equation, and that the financial industry doesn't yet have a framework for it.

We're calling that variable Social Gravity — the compounding pull that a small set of platform-native companies and founders exert on capital, talent, customers, and narrative. It's why SpaceX, Palantir, and a handful of others are trading on a different curve than the rest of the market, and why traditional DCFs and comps are quietly mis-pricing the companies that will define the next decade.

Continue on Substack, where we walk through the full model, the inputs, and what it means for how the industry underwrites from here.

Stay sharp,